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 Hurricane Outlook Discussion - Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico
AXNT20 KNHC 232331

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2215 UTC.


Hurricane Maria is centered near 26.3N 72.5W at 23/2100 UTC or 
about 248 nm E of Great Abaco Island and about 556 nm SSE of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection 
is within 60 nm in the E semicircle, 90 nm in the SW quadrant and 
135 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is 
elsewhere within 210 nm in the N semicircle and 180 nm in the S 
semicircle. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 32.1N 49.8W at 23/2100 UTC or
about 760 nm E of Bermuda and about 1173 nm W of the Azores 
moving NNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 105 nm
of the center except 45 nm in the SE quadrant. See the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC 
for more details.


Tropical wave extends from 09N24W to 22N22W moving W at 5-10 kt. 
The wave coincides with a 700 mb low, the northern vortex, 
centered near 21N21W and associated 700 mb troughing between 16W- 
28W. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave 
axis at this time. Ongoing deep convection remains S of the 
monsoon trough axis and will be mentioned below.

Tropical wave extends from 05N57W to 16N56W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave remains on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge 
anchored near 22N40W and lies beneath an upper level trough axis 
extending from 25N52W to a broad base deep in the tropics near 
07N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is N of 08N within 90
nm W of the tropical wave axis.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
14N17W to 10N21W to 06N33W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone 
axis extends from 06N33W to 05N40W to 07N46W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N-12N between 16W-25W and from 06N-11N
between 48W-56W.



A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
centered over the Florida panhandle near 31N86W with a trough 
axis extending southward over the eastern Gulf to a broad base 
over the Yucatan peninsula and NW Caribbean Sea. An overall weak 
pressure pattern across the basin is resulting in gentle to 
moderate easterly winds with areas of isolated showers and tstms 
generally occurring from 23N-29N between 83W-88W under the 
influence of the middle to upper level lifting dynamics in place. 
W of 90W, dry and stable northerly flow aloft and generally 
gentle to moderate E-SE winds are providing for fair conditions 
and mostly clear skies this evening. Through the remainder of the
weekend into the middle of next week, little change is expected 
in overall conditions. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, E-SE flow
will increase slightly into moderate to occasional fresh breeze 
conditions as ridging noses in from the Arklatex region into the 
eastern Gulf Wednesday into Thursday.


West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails W of 73W this afternoon as
Hurricane Maria is well north of the basin and an overall weak 
pressure pattern remains in place across the central and western 
Caribbean. As a result of the weaker pressure pattern, winds 
remain generally light to gentle and variable at times. A couple 
of weak surface troughs are analyzed, one from the coast of 
central Cuba near 20N80W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N87W, and
the other extending south of Hispaniola near 18N72W to the La
Guajira Peninsula in northern Colombia near 12N71.5W. Across the
NW Caribbean, skies remain mostly clear with fair conditions 
prevailing this evening, except from western Cuba to the northern
Yucatan Peninsula including the approach to the Yucatan Channel
where isolated thunderstorms are occurring around an upper level
trough to the N. To the east, the other surface trough is 
providing focus for widely scattered showers and tstms from 12N- 
18N between 69W-72W. In addition, across the SW Caribbean, the 
monsoon trough axis extends along 08N/09N with scattered strong 
tstms occurring S of 12.5N between 72W-84W. Finally, a tropical 
wave currently along 57W will continue approaching the Lesser 
Antilles through Sunday and increase the probability of isolated 
showers and tstms. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh SE 
winds will prevail E of 70W.


A surface trough currently extends from the south-central coast 
near 18N72W to across the central Caribbean Sea, and continues to
provide focus for scattered showers and tstms across the 
southeastern portion and south coast of the island this evening.
The troughing will slide westward through Sunday as weak ridging 
builds in from the central Atlc from the east.


Outside the influence of Maria across the SW North Atlc
waters, surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder of 
the central and eastern Atlc. A 1020 mb high is centered E-NE 
from Bermuda near 34N56W, and a 1021 mb high is centered across 
the central Atlc near 28N41W. Between these two highs, Tropical 
Storm Lee continues to influence the waters from 30N-34N between 
48W-51W. In addition, a middle to upper level low is centered 
near 25N53W generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from 
25N-32N between 39W-44W.

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